I would like to attempt to be the voice of reason here.
I am not a doctor, nor a politician, nor any kind of expert. I am a rational, intelligent human being who is currently self isolating as to not exacerbate the problem.
I lived through the East Coast Blackout in August of 2003, 8 days without power. We were one of the last neighbourhoods to have power restored because I lived in an industrial area. This feels like that, without the camaraderie and with too much information.
I was a server during SARS in Toronto and I watched us service industry people all suffer and starve because no one came to the city that year. I have also seen the false information about the concert at Downsview park later that year. Our city was suffering massive economic ramifications over a very small outbreak. The Rolling Stones put on a huge concert months after the fact. It did NOT cause the outbreak, Keith Richards saved us.
My normal writing style has a lot of sarcasm and dry humor, I am trying to quell it now, bear with me.
I also was alive, in my 20’s, during 9/11.
I saw something today that made absolute sense to me, so I will share it now.
This feels like 9/11 every day.
Pretty astute. This looming fear, the uncertainty, what is next, countries going on lockdown.
I both realize and emphasize it is not the same. But the global fear is palpable. Like a low-grade panic attack that won’t let go rather than one big episode then a slow return to normalcy.
Things changed after 9/11 and they will definitely change again after this.
As someone who suffers from anxiety, and has a horse in this race, also as a page runner on social media and a blogger with a fairly high hit count, I feel like I have a responsibility to myself and others to remain calm.
I only read articles from reputable sources. I am vigilant in my fact checking.
I have come to some conclusions based on what I have read and what I have experienced.
There seems to be a growing desire among a fair percentage of people to ‘just get this, get sick, quarantine and get it over with.’ Or alternately, with the same sentiment in mind ‘let the government shut everything down, quarantine and get this over with.’
This is my mindset as well. Nothing would bring me more comfort than having a piece of paper that stated ‘recovered’ and have the border reopened.
There is no cure, there is recovery only. Recovery means your body fought off the virus and won. Is it immunity forever? Looks like no. More like the herpes virus but less serious, wherein you can contract COVID 19 a second time, but its rare.
Worth noting it is estimated that 80-90% of the population carry the herpes virus, whereas a fraction of the carriers exhibits symptoms or outbreaks.
I said last week, people are going to get tired of panicking, its exhausting.
I don’t think that is what the media wants.
I am not a conspiracy theorist by any stretch of the imagination. But, on my 3 social media platforms, plus ‘recommended links’ every time I’ve opened Google over a 14 day period, I’ve found 2 articles containing good news. 2 out of an estimated 400 I have been subjected to just from regular scrolling.
I Googled “is Italy testing for COVID 19 among the deceased?” 8+ horrible headlines before I found any reputable, real information, and my question is still unanswered. But it’s a good article. Factual, calming. Here, read it.
My train of thought was as follows. It is now widely known that Africa as a collective, at the height of the AIDS epidemic*, was unable to test the deceased for HIV or AIDS. Of course not, those tests are better used on the living. However, a massive anomaly with the actual numbers was finally noted. Anyone who died of any illness associated with HIV was enumerated as AIDS related ______ (fill in the blank). Most notably pneumonia.
Non infected individuals also get pneumonia.
See where I am going here?
COVID 19 hit during flu season.
Are the death tolls and infection rates accurate? Can they possibly be?
Unlikely. It’s a scientific improbability.
China is another conundrum in and of itself. We are basing a lot of information on numbers and actions coming from China. China is a communist country with a government-controlled media. Culturally speaking, China is also known for ‘saving face’. It is just ingrained in their culture. Zero judgement on my part. I am merely suggesting that maybe the government wouldn’t put a whole country under quarantine over 253 reported cases on January 21st 2020. Which is what happened.
The numbers are likely skewed.
For example In 2008 the magnitude 7.9 2008 Sichuan earthquake killed 87,587 people. (source, Wikipedia) It was originally reported, well after the fact that the death toll from said earthquake was 600-800 people. This was later revealed to be untrue and in reality the numbers were downplayed 100x.
Again, no conspiracy here, just a logical conclusion based on a relatable event.
I lived in Newfoundland for 2 years. I left November 21st 2019 as the first case of COVID 19 was being diagnosed in Wuhan.
Since then I have traveled extensively through the United States. I have crossed paths with at least 3 known diagnosed individuals at 2 different airports, same time, same airline, different flights. I have been to a massive music festival just as the states was starting to report hot spots. I have traveled in those cities, through those airports, most recently a week ago, hence self isolation, even though my symptoms are limited to what I know is my body fighting off an illness. i.e. mildly swollen glands and I am tired.
So fucking tired, mostly due to stress and canceling all of my future travel plans one by one without knowing when I will see my boyfriend again, when I will be allowed to return to work, will the government help me, an independent contractor? I have less unknowns and fears than a lot of people I know. I am safe, I have food and shelter. And here’s the kicker (and the reason for this article).
I know, beyond all doubt, I have been exposed to this virus already. It is an infinitesimally small chance that I haven’t been. Sure, you can say ‘well you traveled a lot.’ Yes, I did. And before last week, I went about my daily life just like everyone else, coming into contact with probably less than your average number of people because I am an introvert, but still. All infection models say the average infected person with infect 2.5 more people, who will go on to infect 2.5 more people, so by me going out 1+2.5+2.5+2.5= 8.5 people off the hop in one day of running to the post office. Which I did. Among other things, i.e. I was on a plane, 4 planes actually, 6 in the last 3 weeks at 3 different airports a total of 6 times.
The math on this is both terrifying and comforting.
Can you see why?
My stance is that probably 90% of the urban population has been exposed if not infected. The curve will flatten sooner than later due to the fact that we have all already been exposed or infected. The numbers will spike when more tests become available, but that is unavoidable,
I read a Twitter thread from a 22-year-old girl in NYC who had been clubbing, a lot, 2 weeks ago. 10 days ago, she started feeling shitty, demanded she be tested even though they didn’t want to. Went through the symptoms, self isolated and yep, she was positive. Imagine how many other people she came in contact with before feeling shitty. The extrovert principle.
I have another friend who travels for work, was on an infected flight, in one of the ‘at risk’ rows. She tested negative.
Another friend went to the hospital 2 days ago in St. John’s Newfoundland, a thriving port town, with exact COVID 19 symptoms and was denied a test and sent home. As of the reports yesterday NFLD had tested 618 people, 1 positive, 2 presumptive. But I know another girl in St. John’s, full symptoms, recovered, never tested.
So, what does all of this mean?
Personally, I think I somehow managed to micro-dose myself with this virus and time will tell, but I think my body is fighting it off rather efficiently. Or, I have been directly exposed and again, I am fine.
I think the numbers are all wrong. Unless we test the entire world including the recently deceased, which is impossible, the numbers will never be accurate.
But if people are fighting to be tested and turned away…how many people really have it?
I would like the media to be more responsible reporting numbers.
I refuse to look at counts unless issued by the World Health Organization daily status reports https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
Or this one https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
worldometers now has a column for # of tests administered and we can do the math on the # of those who test negative.
But that doesn’t make headlines does it.
This is feeling like the end of the world, with a lot of uncertainty.
But, if I am right, it doesn’t have to be.
Stay safe, quarantine if possible, demand to be tested.
Let’s get this over with and get back to our new normal.
*lesser known scientific fact that emerged from Africa during the AIDS epidemic. A large number of prostitutes had developed a natural immunity to HIV from repeated low dose exposure to the virus.
