April 12, 2020

I am not trying to be mean or downplay the people affected by this, which is pretty much everyone at the moment.

It just occurred to me, after way too much time online, a lot of people don;t understand how a virus works. Like at all.

If you still insist on calling this the China virus. Don’t bother reading any further.
You are racist and dangerous.

Everybody else…

This virus is super new. I get that. New information is coming out all of the time. And we get it in real time. From varying sources. Some factual and data driven. Some semi factual and emotionally driven.

This is emotionally factual.

I am not a doctor.
I do have the ability to read and process information in a non-biased, non-reactionary way.
I question things. I fact check. I do my own research. I look for language clues in articles. I factor in variables.

I don’t expect others to do this, however, this is how I manage to stay calm.

Care to join me?

You want to keep being scared? I can’t stop you.

You want to keep re posting articles meant to scare you, just to scare other people?
Kinda mean and crazy but, okay I guess.

Seriously, why though.

Same psychological reason we prefer not to watch scary movies alone I suppose.
You could just turn the scary movie off, there’s that.
Besides, that would and possibly will be another article for another time.
Crisis Psychology 101, for Dummies

I am a bit angry at the media, a lot mad really.

Read 2 articles yesterday. Both reputable sources. I checked.

CAN MOSQUITOES CARRY COVID-19?
That was the attention-grabbing title. I saw 4 people repost it all freaking out.
I then opened the article and the answer is no.
So why not just say that in the first place?
Because you won’t click on it and in this day and age, a click is the same thing as buying a magazine or a newspaper, that is how they make money.

You are literally paying them to freak you out.

Can we please be done with the panic portion of the exercise now?

Stop reposting without reading the article. Look for words like ‘potentially, presumably, might possibly, maybe’ basically anything non-committal a fuck boy might say if you are asking if you are exclusive.

And my new nemesis.
REINFECTION. Everyone’s new favorite headline.

Open

The

Fucking

Article.

Read it. They use the word reinfection in the headline and switch to reactivation in the article.
There is no cure for COVID-19. Even a vaccine is not a cure. The difference between sick and well is viral load versus antibodies. How many foreign cells are present, are they active and replicating faster than your body can fight them off or inactive, not replicating or replicating at a manageable level.

Reactivation is different than reinfection. Reactivation means the minimum viral load necessary to register positive was not present at the time of one (OR 2) negative tests, and the virus multiplied again enough to register positive on yet another test.

The other reasonable explanation is human error. The negative wasn’t really a negative in the first place.
And buried in every REINFECTION article is a small disclaimer stating exactly both of the things I just said.

REINFECTION is sexy, scary, keeps us afraid.

And it isn’t really real.

Reactivation is common in viruses. Get a cold, feel like shit, feel a bit better then feel like shit again. Reinfection is rare and would mean that the person 100% for sure cleared the virus, went out and caught it again from someone else. That doesn’t really happen.

Chicken pox you get once (mostly), Norwalk viruses mutate, and you can catch them every few years.
My entire family had it this year, my immunity from having it 2 years ago prevented me from getting reinfected. See how that works? I had antibodies.

Antibodies from those infected from the SARS virus were still present 1 to 2 years after the initial infection. This is a good thing, means your body knows how to fight that particular thing. Same goes with flus and colds.

But this virus is new.
Hard data is rare, speculation is rampant. This is all theoretical.

There are two strains, and they are too close to each other to risk a true reinfection.
The antibodies produced from fighting strain L are good enough to fight strain S also.

Let me break it down.

Our bodies are exposed to viruses and bacteria all day long.
We do NOT get a lot of them for 3 reasons.
1. We survived a similar infection and our defense system created antibodies. Lil soldier cells that attack and kill virus cells on contact.
2. We have been exposed to small enough doses of a virus or similar virus that, over time, our lil soldier dudes already trained how to kill said virus. This is also a very base explanation for how vaccines work.
3. Our natural immune system, the one we were born with, came equipped with the soldiers to fight said virus.

This is why cousins should not have children. Our natural immune system is a double, combination of immunities from each parent, which are combinations of their parents etc… too close in the gene pool = sickly kids.

Your mom is immune to x y z, your dad is immune to a b x
You are immune to a b X y z

Alternately, when we travel really far from home, sometimes we need vaccines. Our bodies are not equipped to deal with certain viruses that are common in other countries. Bad, but easy example. Don’t drink the water in Mexico, everyone knows this right? Travelers Diarrhea, key word traveler. People who live in Mexico don’t run around shitting their pants all day every day. They have a natural immunity to the microorganisms that cause this, and/or a tolerance built up over time. Travelers do not.

So what about COVID-19. Its new. The presumption can be made no one is immune. Not so at all.
No virus is 100% infectious.
The cruise ships were for all intents and purposes, closed control groups.
100% exposure and rigorous testing for both the virus and antibodies after the fact.
Less than 1/3 tested positive for the virus AND antibodies.
People were directly exposed to the virus and did not catch it.
Let that sink in.

The options with this particular virus (any virus really) are as follows.

1. Exposure without infection
2. Exposure with infection but no symptoms
3. Exposure with infection and mild symptoms
4. Infection leading to severe symptoms

Some people are naturally immune, been exposed, did not get it at all, no way to count that number really.
Some people carry the virus and do not get sick, which seems to be a higher number than previously understood, means you have antibodies, also means you can transmit the virus to others until the viral load decreases*. Some people get sick and recover, which means you have antibodies.
Some people get sick and their bodies cannot produce antibodies fast enough to keep the viral load in check and the virus takes over which leaves the body susceptible to pneumonia and other issues and you don’t make it.

*This is what makes this particular virus both scary and not scary.
Usually you feel sick and are contagious on a short timeline.
This hangs out in your body, replicating for up to 14 days without you feeling sick at all. = Scary
You probably already had it or came in contact with it and did not get sick = less scary

I would love to have a handy dandy little graph to show you what percentage of who is what, but I don’t. No one does.

As it stands today, there are 7.7 billion people in the world. Most of them fall into category 1 or 2. Like really mostly. Up to 40% are 2.

If you scroll down on worldometers.com they split the numbers into active and resolved, then again into mild and critical. Today Italy had 100 000 active cases, all but 3000 are mild. 30 000 recovered.

It takes substantially longer to get a diagnosis of negative than to be registered as a positive. How many people are going to go running to the already overwhelmed hospitals if they are simply feeling better, finally.

In my opinion, just using logic, a vast portion of the population of earth, especially in urban areas have already been exposed to the virus. If you left your house in March and went anywhere other people were, you probably got micro-dosed at the least or fully exposed.

But this idea makes it less scary doesn’t it. So would mass antibody testing so people can stop being afraid of hypotheticals

As does looking at the number of tests processed versus positive tests.

• USA has held steadily at 4/5 tests being negative.
• Canada is 3 out of 4 are negative. A negative can easily turn into a positive yes, which is why we need antibody testing badly.
• But, the reason for bringing this up is it is easier to get a COVID-19 test in both of those countries if you can prove direct contact with a positive case or are presenting symptoms. Not easy by any stretch, just easier.

This is all based on my research and my perspective. I am totally fine being wrong or changing my mind when new information presents itself.

I wish everyone else would.

It is time to stop panicking and start being practical.

Stay home, stay safe.